formacja na WIG20 wyglada to na opisana w Bulkowskim (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns) formacje "Wedges, Rising".
Cytujac za autorem:
"As formations go, the rising wedge is one of the poorer performing chart patterns. It sports a failure rate of 24%, which falls to 6% if you wait for a downside breakout. The average decline is 19%, just a bit below the usual 20% decline for other bearish chart patterns.
One interesting finding concerns the volume trend. Successful formations with a receding volume trend outperform those with a rising volume trend; the losses are 21% and 15%, respectively. This means if you restrict your selections to those showing receding volume throughout the formation, you should do better. On the flip side, you will also be passing up many formations in which you could trade profitably.
Only 38% of the formations have high volume downside breakouts. Apparently, prices can fall of their own weight even on low volume."
Oznacza to, ze niekoniecznie wybicie z formacji z musi byc potwierdzone wzrostem wolumenu - ktorego de facto oczekiwalem.
Dalej cytujac:
"Identification Characteristics of Rising Wedges
Characteristic
Two up-sloping trendlines:
Draw two trendlines, one along the minor highs and one along the minor lows. The trendlines must both slope upward and eventually intersect.
Multiple touches:
Well-formed rising wedges have multiple touches of the two trendlines. Be skeptical of wedges having fewer than five touches (three on one side and two on the other).
A rising wedge has a minimum duration of 3 weeks. Anything less is a pennant.
Three-week minimum:
Formations rarely exceed 3 or 4 months long.
Volume trend:
Volume usually trends downward throughout the
formation.
Breakout volume:
Breakout volume can be either heavy or light but is
generally below average
Liczac sredni spadek ok 15%-19% trafiamy gdzies w okolice 2500-2600 jesli wylamanie nastapiloby z poziomu ok.3000. Dodajmy jeszcze przebicie trendu w dol na RSI oraz sygnaly sprzedazy na CCI i Stoch.
Jak na razie sie dosc sporo zgadza, jednakze:
Brak wyraznego sygnalu na RSI oraz MACD.
Brak spadku LOP.
Bulkowski okresla ta formacje jako dosc niepewna:
"The failure rate is 24%, above the maximum 20% rate that I consider reliable formations to possess. If you wait for a downside breakout before investing, then the failure rate drops to 6%. The average decline, at 19%, is near the low end for bearish reversals, which usually score about 20%"
Czyli powiedzmy 70% na spadki, 30% na wybicie.