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/ 91.93.132.* / 2008-12-17 13:00
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The dead mall problem
Experts say Atlanta, Las Vegas, and retail hubs in California and Florida are at real economic risk if thousands of more stores shutter in 2009.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As the recession leaves more retail casualties in its wake, experts warn that rising store bankruptcies and mall closures could have devastating economic consequences for entire communities.
Major cities across America will be impacted to various degrees, said David Birnbrey, Chairman and Co-CEO of Atlanta-based The Shopping Center Group, a retail real estate services firm.
"In Las Vegas, the real estate downturn was led by the housing collapse and now the retail downturn is taking over," Birnbrey said.
"'We also have too many stores in Atlanta relative to the population," he added.
Susan Wachter, professor with University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Real Estate Department, said she's fearful that a retail collapse in 2009 will be the successor to overbuilt housing that's already hit major American cities.
"But with retailing, it will be a more regional story," Wachter said. "The Mid-west, California, Florida, Atlanta and Arizona are very vulnerable to a retail recession," she said.
Both Birnbrey and Wachter warn the social and economic impact of empty stores can be devastating.
Forecasts look bleak
The International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC), in its most recent forecast, expects that 6,100 chain stores will shutter this year, the highest level since 2004 "as the U.S. recession continues to take its toll on the retail sector and its job market."
In 2009, the ICSC estimates that store closings could exceed 3,100 just in the first half of the year. However, the number of potential closings rise exponentially when the firm takes into account both public and private sector businesses.
ICSC projects that about 148,000 retail establishments - both public and private - will go out of business this year and another 73,000 stores will close in the first half of 2009.
In terms of retail jobs lost, the ICSC projects that about 625,000 retail jobs will be eliminated this year "with little change in the pace for early 2009."