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What is actually taking place is that the money supply is climbing rapidly, while the financial market has already put in its peak and is falling. Yes, we have had a good bounce but the major trend is down, because sooner or later the equity market does reflect the true economy.
So, the physical economy is going down in the U.S., the financial markets have acknowledged this fact, and the authorities are trying to paper over the whole problem as if this can help.
Thus in a concise way, as much as some (mostly Wall Street) have "enjoyed" this recovery, we have based it upon fudging the truth. Once the real numbers come out, most likely in early October we may see the financial markets react in a very big way.
What will add credence to this outline is the breakdown in social services that even the most unaware Americans will be forced to recognize. As social services are cut back, schools become overcrowded, prisons release inmates early, and states go broke, the reality of the physical economy will reach nearly everyone. In our view, this is a watershed moment just ahead and we need to prepare our thinking.
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