mam FON-a kupionego po 5 gr. - trzymam go po to zeby mi przypominal wlasnie owe "niezrealizowane straty" - jak mam opory przed wywaleniem czegos, to tylko patrze na FON i opory znikaja :-)
A co do reszty, cytat z takiego forum (przydlugawe):
Look people, nothing has changed...the prob's we have as a society are much bigger than FNM/FRE...yes we will prob rally for a few days but the underlying risks and probs remain firmly in place....the mkts will be falling soon enough.
1. the US has 50-100T in oligations over the next 30 yrs and have 0 saved for this.
2. consumer credit went from 7T to 14T from 2000--->2007, mostly financed from the home ATM that doesnt exist anymore and the equity utilized now gone...time to pay up...during the depression, a similar thing happened but it was margin for buying up stocks in speculative fashion.
3. according to the BIS, there are 700T worth of deritives out there...JP Morgan alone is holding 100T worth of deritives...the system is broken when everyone is so intertwined that nobody of any significance can fail or it would risk the entire world financial system..ticking time bomb....BS couldnt fail because they had a whopping 2T in derivitives.
4. There is 50T(yes with a T) in credit default swaps(CDS) on FNM/FRE...these CDS's have been traded many times over so nobody knows whos on the hook if there is a failure but in reality nobody at the end is because they will just file bankruptcy so in reality, everyone is on the hook and there are no true hedges or insurance policies!..the entire world real estate value is 75T!...we cant let the GSE's fail because China alone sitting on 1T worth of FNM/FRE bonds and preferred shares...yes the entire world financial system would collapse if FNM and FRE go bankrupt and their debts unwound.
5. unemployment skyrocketing...plot out last 5 yrs...peak during last severe recession was 6.3% in 6/2003...we are at 6.1% now and climbing very fast....true unemployment is running 12%...true CPI is 10% at least...true GDP has been negative for 3 yrs and currently -3% according to shadowstats.com
6. 70% GDP is consumer spending and credit expansion...we are clearly tapped now...no more raises, no more credit, not good!...M3 falling off a cliff over past 2 months.
7. true gauge of our economy right now is seen in the extremely high credit spreads...investment grade corp bond-short term treasurie spread 300-400 basis pts!...normally its 70....LIBOR causing HF's and mortgage banks to borrow at 300% over what they were paying just 6 months ago...there is no trust because its a matter of primitive survival now.
8. SP P/E ratio now 25!...this will be coming down.
9. only thing holding up this mkt over past 6 months has been the commodities, oil, gold...since the recent strenghtening of the dollar, the commodities have crashed and now there isnt much holding up anything...the dollar is stronger because the world is entering a recession(ie-euro weakening) and they at least are admitting it, unlike some countries i know.
Remember that most of the profits from fortune 500 co's with a global presence made their money on high amt of exports and the exchange rate from a weak dollar, this is gone now too...where will the profits come from?
10. during credit contraction, leverage will be diminished severely...the mkts wont heal until financials do and how are these financials going to make money when credit is contracting and their leverage gone???...well it either cant or will do so at very weak levels.
11. its a joke when people call for a bottom in financials on CNBC and the likes because the financial health of banks and etc are dependent on whether real estate mkts stabilize and heal...with inventories at 1 yr, things getting worse and not better...you cant call for a bottom in financials and hence the mkts, until real estate inventories get closer to 6 months...if I can figure this out but the analysts cannot, they are either paid shills or flat out liars or really really stupid....the level 3 assets that the banks try to hide keep getting worse and worse when home foreclosures are on the rise...so it is a evolving process so how can you call for a bottom right now?.
12. we will be seeing alot of commercial loan failures(Im seeing this right now where I live), consumer car and credit card defaults soon...this isnt a subprime problem anymore...it will and has infected prime now....many alt-A's will be resetting soon...subprime--->altA's----> prime.
13. Bernanke is a student of the Great Depression and like Friedman, he faults the severe credit tightening process as the main problem with the GD...when our current mkt crashes soon from now and we undeniably enter the world recession also, Bernanke will be lowering rates again by 1st quarter of next yr...inflation worries will return and deflation will take a pause for awhile as money will flood into the banks but too bad the banks wont be lending a