Obi-Wan Kenobi
/ 178.36.0.* / 2010-05-21 16:29
To jest wydarzenie, o którym wolą nie wspominać...
Yet the biggest positional unwind ongoing currently, which has trillions of dollars behind it, and that few are talking about is the unprecedented flattening of the Treasury curve, as seen in the 2s10s. With every hedge fund, most notably Julian Robertson, and bank (Morgan Stanley), either actively buying or pitching curve steepeners, virtually all market participants are now on the wrong side of the trade, which has collapsed from 290 a month ago to 242bps today, and it appears we will take out the September low of 230 bps shortly.
We have long been warning that curve flattening is the biggest squeeze danger out there, courtesy of massive groupthink, which always without fail (anyone remember Volkswagen) cause massive pain to all those who instead of thinking independently, rush into a trade just because "everyone else is doing it." Well, the trade now is collapsing, and with leverage in the hundreds if not thousands, all those who have steepeners on are forced to liquidate whatever else holdings they have, further pushing the long-dated side of the curve lower, thereby reinforcing the liquidation pressure. Look for the 2s10s to continue collapsing, and for MS to change its tune on the steepener trade shortly.