Rynek będzie spadał, bo ci, co ponieśli straty w Dubaju, muszą sprzedawać co innego i gdzie indziej, żeby je pokrywać.

Złoty/dolar już 2,8084 (+0,0404). Odpływ przyspiesza...

Dubaj dziś świętuje, prawdziwa zabawa dopiero się zacznie w przyszłym tygodniu......

My tu gadu gadu o Dubaju, a u Japończyków bezrobocie spada, inne wskaźniki też zaczynają się poprawiać.

The Death of the U.S. Consumer.
The problem for the U.S. now (and for the future) is that not only can exponential increases in debt no longer be financed by U.S. consumers, but this same limitation also applies to all three levels of U.S. government. For the state and municipal levels of government, this means a continuing stream of lay-offs for years to come – followed by many more years of austerity. For the federal government, it has already resulted in large portions of the current deficit being “monetized” (i.e. printing money to pretend to “pay its bills”).

With no possibility of future growth being sustained through increased credit/debt, any genuine economic recovery requires employment growth. This brings me to the second “nail” in the economic coffin of the United States. An economy roughly 70% dependent upon consumption must also rely upon service-sector jobs to provide the majority of its employment.

Public sector employment is certain to shrink through the combination of a record-collapse in revenues, and exploding costs for health-care and other entitlement programs. Tax increases and fee increases are also inevitable.

For the private sector, the combination of a lower marginal propensity to consume, and the massive down-sizing already underway in the U.S. retail sector has created a death-spiral of fewer consumer-dollars leading to more retail sector lay-offs, leading to even less consumer spending.
In the U.S. economy, three separate dynamics are all simultaneously at work to lower the U.S.'s MPC. First of all, there is the ever-increasing inequality of wealth distribution in the U.S. economy. In a typical capitalist society, the lop-sided distribution of wealth generally involves the wealthiest 20% of society holding 80% of the wealth (with the inverse ratio of the bottom 80% holding only 20% of the wealth).

In the United States, the top 20% holds 85% of the wealth, meaning the lower 80% hold a measly 15% of the wealth. This may not seem like a huge difference, however what it means is that the 80-percentile demographic in non-U.S. societies have (on average) a 33% higher standard of living. This has a large impact on U.S. consumption at both ends of the wealth spectrum
The second dynamic which is lowering the U.S. marginal propensity to consume is the reduction of credit available to U.S. consumers – the first time this has happened in the 40 years for which such records have been kept. The excessive reliance upon debt/credit has meant that many U.S. consumers have had a MPC of greater than 100%. In fact, for a period of two years (at the peak of U.S. bubble-insanity), the entire U.S. economy had a marginal propensity to consume of greater than 100%.
The third dynamic reducing the MPC is a voluntary reduction in consumption by the people in the middle. Those Americans who still have “discretionary income” to spend are choosing to spend less. A Reuters article provides numbers which are nothing short of catastrophic for U.S. retailers. A full 25% of the U.S. population state they have decided to permanently reduce spending.
To counter this, the U.S. propaganda-machine has invented new “buzzwords” for the media-parrots to recite incessantly: “frugality fatigue”. This laughable invention of the propagandists presents us with the idea that after U.S. consumers have just finished the wildest thirty-year spending-binge in human history, that one year of extremely modest saving has “exhausted” them.

A fourth drag on consumer spending is the falling wealth of U.S. consumers. I covered part of this in a recent commentary (see “Housing Sector Mirage”). A shocking one in seven U.S. mortgage-holders are already delinquent on their mortgage or in foreclosure – and 5 out 6 of those people will end up losing their homes if previous trends hold. Obviously people who lose their homes have lost most or all of their wealth – and it will be many years (if ever) before such households spend at previous levels.
Equally horrific, it was just reported that nearly one out of four U.S. mortgage-holders are “under-water” on their mortgage (i.e. they have less-than-zero equity). When record-numbers of Americans are losing their homes and record-numbers have zero equity or less, this suddenly-poor society will simply have much less to spend – even when consumers finally have access to more credit.

N a Dubajuj mocno stracą banki inwestycyjne.
To jest ważne dla giełd.
there is a more significant worry about investment banks due to mark-to-market pricing risks and the potential for lower fixed income revenues in emerging markets

U 77-letniej Słowenki doszło do zatrzymania akcji serca kilka minut po tym, gdy zaszczepiono ją przeciw grypie A/H1N1 - poinformował słoweński resort zdrowia.