Obi-Wan Kenobi
/ 83.5.246.* / 2009-12-07 09:02
Prawda jest taka, że sytuacja na rynku pracy w Stanach nadal się pogarsza i ukrywanie bezrobocia nic tu nie pomoże.
All of the economic models are created on past performance. For instance, right now the economic idea du jour is what the recovery will look like. So, economists go back and average the eight post-war recessions and say, "Look, this is what the average was and this is how it responded." Well, making a prediction based on that only works as well as the underlying fundamentals of the recession.
This is a deleveraging, deflationary, asset-bubble-bursting recession. We're going to lose 8-10 million jobs. We're back to where we were in early 2000 in terms of jobs. Over the next five years, just to keep up with population growth, we must create another nine million jobs. Plus, we've got another almost five million people who are underemployed. And the Census Bureau took 450,000 people off this year because they said, "They're no longer looking for jobs, and since they're not looking for jobs they're not unemployed." That is a fascinating way of looking at it! Last month you were looking for a job and now you're so discouraged you're not looking for a job, so we're not going to count you as unemployed. That's a patently silly idea!
That's absurd.
Over the next five years we're going to have to create something like 17-20 million jobs to get back to 4-5% unemployment. That's a staggering number of jobs. That's something like a 15% growth in the number of jobs over five years. You'd need real GDP growth of 15% to make that happen. What is the likelihood of total real GDP growth of 15% for the next five years? Less than 0%.