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Eastern Europe Update

[A]ccording to the latest report on the region from Fitch:

Many countries in EE are relatively open, so the global recession has been rapidly transmitted to exports. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia are particularly open economies and closely integrated within the EU economy (particularly Germany): exports of goods are equivalent to 79% of GDP in Slovakia, 70% in the Czech Republic and 68% in Hungary (2007 data). That said, exports typically have a high import content, so the effect on value‐added is much lower.

So you can forget about foreign exchange-denominated loan exposure at this point in the likes of Hungary, Czech Republic and Poland. While this is still obviously a concern (and regional currency euro cross-rates are creeping back to the lows of February which previously set off the EE panic) the escalation of the crisis into the real economy and trade decline is now the key vulnerability.


with export volumes crashing, as best illustrated by the difficulties of (erstwhile) trade-surplus nations like germany, japan and china, these small open economies are facing a devastating twin blow -- massive private sector balance sheet damage related to forex, and a titanic collapse in trade and therefore income.

Moody's downgraded $1.76 trln U.S. corp debt in

The downgrades included a record number to the lowest rating categories, signaling the approach of the worst defaults since at least World War Two, Moody's chief economist John Lonski said in an interview.

"These are numbers that just underscore how risky both the financial and economic environment remain," Lonski said.

The downgrades reflect how badly corporate balance sheets have been hurt by the slump in consumer spending amid the deepest economic contraction since 1982.

"Business sales and profits fell off the table in general during the final quarter of last year and have continued to deteriorate in the first quarter in 2009," Lonski said.

U.S. corporate profits plunged a record $120.1 billion in the fourth quarter, depressed by tumbling consumer spending and exports.

Downgrades of investment-grade companies shot up by 153 percent from the year-ago quarter to a record 96, while downgrades of junk-rated companies surged by 147 percent to 287.

The rating downgrades were led by industries with exposure to the ailing housing industry, including homebuilders, mortgage insurers and major money center banks. Some 70 of the quarter's downgrades were housing related.

"The most prominent new driving force behind credit rating reductions would be deterioration of commercial real estate," Lonski said. That is taking a toll on regional banks and companies that manufacture equipment and material used in construction, he said.

The downgrades included one of the largest on record, $326 billion of bonds and preferred shares of General Electric Co (GE.N) and its units. Other major borrowers downgraded included Ford Motor Co (F.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N).

In addition to housing, sectors under rating pressure included automakers and auto parts suppliers, media companies, casinos and retailers.

Among the downgrades were 22 fallen angels, or companies cut to junk status. In addition, 82 ratings were downgraded to the lowest categories, Caa3 or lower. That means that the U.S. high-yield default rate, which stood at 5.7 percent in February, is destined to climb sharply in short order, Lonski said.

Trochę sobie żesmy pomarzyli, trochę pożartowali ale tak na poważnie to radzę jutro wywalać wszystko pekacem...jak jutro będzie podbitka z rana to będzie ostatnia szansa na wyjście z rynku...przyszły tydzień nie zapowiada się obiecująco...:((( obiektywnie i bez emocji

dobranoc

witam

to tylko efekt prima aprilis

w tfi trzeba być niestety cierpliwym