Sytuacja na rynku nieruchomości odwróciła się ponownie na gorsze. A od tego zaczął się cały kryzys, wiec i obecne "ożywienie" na ogromnym stymulowaniu, które zresztą niewiele pomogło, jest już przeszłością...
last year was bad, but we again ticked up significantly for several months in a row for an improvement. That improvement has quickly disappeared with several markets dipping back into the negative. and all markets trending sharply downward. This is a negative, not a positive turn of events. Put this in perspective, with hundreds of billions of dollars of government aid, MBS purchases, tax credits and bank support - we are still seeing this sharp month to month downtrend. It is no wonder why the housing tax credit was extended, but to what good?
As we drill down on the trend view, we can see that the upward trend in most markets has stopped, with a few markets actually turning back down again, and right after the spring/summer selling season and the perception of the proximal expiration of the tax credit. This is a negative, not a positive turn of events.
So, what does it mean if we get another significant downturn? Well, not only are the 2003 to 2007 vintage mortgages in trouble, but those 2008 and 2009 mortgages are at risk as well. What are the chances of this happening? Fairly significant. For all of those guys who swear we are on the brink of a booming economic recovery, recall that it was housing depreciation that set all of this off to begin with. It was not a dip in GDP, not unemployment, not a dip in corporate profits, definitely not a change in analyst's earnings forecasts and not a crash in the stock market. It was a crash in housing. What happens if we get another housing crash (or more accurately put, the continuing of the current one) after a few hundred billion of stimulus and a 62% run in the S&P to guarantee that the stocks are nice and ripe in their overvaluations? Inquiring minds want to know...
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