Akcje na rynkach wschodzących są za drogie, na podobnym poziomie jak w październiku 2007 r. kiedy nastąpił potem spadek o ok. 50%. Takie wyceny mogą być może w sytuacji wzrostu, a nie pogłębiającego się kryzysu.
Emerging Markets Priciest Since 2007 When Shares Fell.
The last time stocks in developing countries got this expensive was in October 2007, just before the MSCI Emerging Markets Index began a 12-month tumble that erased half its value.
The MSCI gauge trades at 15.4 times reported earnings, compared with 14 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to weekly data compiled by Bloomberg. When developing nations last commanded a premium, the 22-country benchmark sank 54 percent in the next year.
Groupama Asset Management, Palatine Asset Management and Standard Life Investments say the disparity means investors are paying too much for shares from China to India to Brazil at a time when the global economy is contracting. MSCI’s emerging- market gauge is valued at 1.7 times its companies’ net assets after a 34 percent surge last quarter, the highest on record compared with the MSCI World Index of 23 advanced economies, which trades for 1.5 times.
“Emerging-market stocks are at risk,” said Matthieu Giuliani, a Paris-based fund manager at Palatine, which oversees $5.56 billion. “You should only pay so much for growth.”
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