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"US Single-Family Homes
The following chart will not be welcome news for recent home buyers, and particularly sour for those close to or already underwater with their mortgages. This is the post-WWII average price for S. Florida homes clearly showing the boom-bust cycles over the duration. I have added the red forecast line which I expect to play out over the next dozen years or so. It is clear that year 2000 was the breakaway moment -- when Alan Greenspan lowered interest rates to bail out the tech stock investors after the Nasdaq market crashed. These super-low interest rates fueled the hot housing market creating an anomaly that is extremely clear by this chart. Just reverting back to the mean (center trend line) will be extremely painful. But just like the overstretched rubber band chart line into year 2000, the snap-back is likely to fall below the lower trend line.
link:http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchange/9807/Charts/SP500/HousingForecast2025_0804.jpg
The bulk of this downturn should occupy the entire 4 years of the next presidential term, making a re-election for their 2nd term highly unlikely. Fed intervention is unlikely to stop the housing bear market, except perhaps to prolong the pain by slowing it down and making it last for many more years that it otherwise should. Please note the previous 2 housing price bubble downturns (peaks in 1979 and 1989) fell quicker than the rise."