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To tylko kwestia czasu ...
Eastern Europe 2
Published: February 18 2009 09:36 | Last updated: February 18 2009 22:29
For a decade, central and eastern Europe sucked in western money. Rapid growth in consumption-starved countries meant western banks deployed ample liquidity and made handsome returns. In 2005-08 alone, their exposure to “emerging” Europe, including Turkey, tripled to $1,500bn – about 40 per cent of the region’s gross domestic product. The boom has bust.
Short-term debt due to be repaid to western banks this year exceeds $400bn. That is a scary prospect given how fast the credit machine has reversed, and default risks risen. But while emerging Europe has common trends, conditions vary hugely by country. The good news, as UBS notes, is more than half this short-term debt is held by relatively robust countries such as Russia, Poland, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Riskiness of specific western exposures depends in part on how much is to the worst-affected countries, including the Baltic states, the Balkans, Hungary and Ukraine.