hannibal
/ 2007-02-28 07:04
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portfel
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Pan Forumowicz (ponad 500 wypowiedzi)
Dla kumatych po angielsku : wstawiam całość ,bo to wiadomość agencyjna z platformy x-trade-dostęp dla zarejestrowanych.....
BEIJING (XFN-ASIA) - The nine pct plunge in China's key Shanghai composite index yesterday which sparked heavy global selling was merely an overdue correction and is unlikely to have any lasting effect on the real global economy, analysts said. The fall came after a sustained period of strong gains, with the Shanghai index rising in 22 out of the last 25 weeks and breaking the 3,000 points mark for the first time last Monday. That in itself was a key reason for the sell-off as it provided investors with a technical excuse to pocket some gains, Standard Chartered analyst Stephen Green said. "This was investors getting nervous around a major level," he said in a note. The Shanghai Composite Index ended yesterday down 8.84 pct from Monday's highs at 2,771.79. However as nerves settled today the market regained some of its composure with the index finishing the morning session up 6.88 points at 2,778.67. Cao Yan, an analyst at Soochow Securities in the eastern city of Suzhuo, added that the correction, although drastic, was overdue and not a cause for concern. "There was actually no specific negative news that triggered yesterday's broad falls, and it was an exaggerated correction that had been expected for a long time. Before this week, the Shanghai market had been performing strongly and sentiment started to get a bit irrational, so corrections are definitely necessary," Cao said. "I do not agree that there is a bubble in China's stock market, because we have to look at things on a dynamic basis. And with the still solid earnings growth and improved asset quality of listed firms after the share reforms, the current index levels are totally acceptable," she added. Another trigger for yesterday's plunge, the worst in a decade, was the fear that Chinese authorities would take steps to cool speculative activity by setting up an inter-ministry task-force to investigate bank lending to stock buyers and illegal brokerage activity. But Standard Chartered's Green said the sell-off will have no lasting impact on either the Chinese or world economy. "The real economic effect on global growth is approximately zero," Green said. Deutsche Bank's Jun Ma agreed that the market correction, which was fundamentally due to its stretched valuation, would have no major impact on the real economy going forward. "We do not see any significant impact from this market correction on China's real economy," he said, adding that he remains bullish on the country's economic fundamentals and medium-term outlook for China's equity markets. But in the short-term he sees further downside pressure, given the crackdown on illegal fund inflows into the market and the likelihood of a rate hike in the near-term after strong inflation figures in February, which are also seen spilling into March. "Risks to the A-share market will remain biased to the downside at least in the very near term. We view another 15-20 pct correction of the A-share index as needed and healthy, which should then justify renewed interest from many investors," Ma said. Shenyin Wanguo Securities analyst Wu Dazhong added that the market slump would only be temporary, with the Shanghai index likely to find support at around 2,600 points. He noted that liquidity remains abundant, while the yuan is still appreciating and corporate earnings are strong. "The slump was only a temporary thing and soon people will realize that nothing has changed. The Shanghai Composite index will find a strong support at the 2,600 points level, and after the corrections, the market will pick up its momentum on the back of still robust economic growth in China," Wu said. He added that much of the heavy selling yesterday was from private stock investment fund firms in anticipation of next week's National People's Congress in Beijing when new credit-tightening policies may be announced. Standard Chartered's Green noted that political factors would play a part, with authorities keen to nip any nascent market bubble in the bud. "Rather like the real estate market, Beijing would likely like to see the market stabilize around these levels in the short-term and then resume a gradual annual rise," Green said. "The challenge is that they have to combat generally bullish sentiment and ample liquidity - so they have to somehow calibrate the rhetoric and the policy actions to keep a lid on this, while not triggering a collapse," he added. Separately, Deutsche Bank's Ma noted that during major China market corrections, stocks in property, financial, and metal sectors tend to be more vulnerable, while food and beverage, utilities, expressways, exporters and industrials are more defensive.